"Twelve million votes could be lost (out of a total of 50 million)," opposition legislator Rufus Rodriguez warned a House of Representatives energy committee hearing last month. He was referring to the situation on the southern island of Mindanao, where the electricity shortage is particularly acute. In an attempt to minimise fraud, the electoral commission (Comelec) will be using automated voting machines for the first time this year. A major electricity supply failure during voting for the presidential election on May 10 could potentially be very serious.

The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) has acknowledged the possibility of a power supply shortage on Mindanao in May, and says it has taken all necessary precautions. These include talking to the owners of generators installed in malls and other locations that could provide additional generating capacity.

Unfortunately, such official assurances do not have much credibility. Last month's power blackouts in Manila, for example, came barely two weeks after energy secretary Angelo Reyes declared the power problems on the main island of Luzon 'resolved'.

The immediate causes of the power shortage include plant shutdowns due to maintenance and a prolonged dry spell resulting from the El Nino weather phenomenon. Dams across the country are at critically low levels, forcing the hydro-electric power plants that form the backbone of the national grid to cut output. The situation is not expected to improve until the rainy season begins in June.

But the more fundamental problem is the lack of long-term planning. As early as 2006, the energy department predicted that there would be an electricity shortage on Luzon by this year. At the time, Reyes insisted that supplies were adequate and that shortages would occur only in the latter part of this year, beyond his term as energy secretary. But the El Nino phenomenon has brought this timetable forward, and the energy secretary is now in the hot seat.

Unreliable electricity supplies, combined with one of the highest electricity tariff rates in the region, have long been cited as a major disincentive to foreign investors. But despite years of acrimonious debate on the issue, the country seems no closer to a solution.

Critics accuse the Manila Electric Company (Meralco), the dominant power distributor on Luzon, of being responsible for the high power rates, a charge the company hotly denies. A related problem is Meralco's complicated generation charges, which differ according to where and when the power was sourced.

Efforts to find a solution to the pricing issue have been hampered by the fact that the influential Lopez family, which controls Meralco, maintains an acrimonious relationship with various government agencies, including the Government Service Insurance System. The latter holds a 33 per cent stake in the company.

The problem is structural as well as political. The Philippines faced a similar energy crisis in the early 1990s after the controversial 600MW nuclear power plant at Bataan built during the Marcos years was mothballed in response to safety concerns and allegations of bribery.

Former president Fidel Ramos reacted by fast-tracking energy-related investments, including big-ticket outlays for independent power producers. But the urgency of the situation also forced the government to commit itself to unpopular long-term contracts that obliged consumers to pay high prices.

One South Korean company has expressed an interest in rehabilitating the Bataan power plant. But the move remains unpopular and is therefore unlikely to be pursued seriously for some time. Yet another suggestion is to harness the geothermal energy sources located in areas such as Bicol in south-eastern Luzon, the Visayas (central Philippines), and parts of Mindanao.

Unfortunately, there has been more talk than action. Power generation capacity on Mindanao - by far the worst affected area - has not risen for years despite an annual population growth rate of 2.3 per cent. According to the NGCP, the region could face a very serious power crisis in three to five years if it fails to construct a 600MW power plant.

As for the May election, Comelec has assured the public that its voting machines will be equipped with batteries designed to kick in automatically in the case of a blackout. But the system is as yet untested in an actual election. If the batteries fail to work, the country could face yet another round of political instability.

This is particularly so if those who attempt to deal with the problem are suspected of tampering with the vote in order to favour administration nominee Gilberto Teodoro. The involvement of Comelec officials in President Gloria Arroyo's alleged rigging of the 2004 election is still fresh in the minds of many Filipinos.