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Thai ministry forecasts 5% export growth for 2012
Publication Date : 25-10-2012
The Commerce Ministry has accepted that Thai exports this year will likely expand by just 5 per cent, the lowest growth since the global economic crisis in 2009, largely because of the euro zone's woes affecting both direct and indirect shipments to the European and other markets.
The ministry's single-digit growth prediction was decided upon after exports in the first nine months dropped 1.13 per cent year on year to US$172.34 billion, while imports grew 5.76 per cent to $184.3 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $11.96 billion.
Deputy Commerce Minister Poom Sarapol yesterday said the global economic down-trend had hit exports from many countries.
Thai shipments this year are now expected to grow by just 5 per cent, while other countries' exports will also face slower growth.
Exports in the current quarter should, however, improve to more than $20 billion a month thanks to the ongoing recovery in the industrial sector from last year's severe flooding, he said.
The ministry reported that exports in September had witnessed the first year-on year growth in four months. Overseas shipments grew by 0.2 per cent to $20.78 billion, while imports declined 7.7 per cent to $19.63 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.15 billion for the month.
Shipments by the agricultural sector dropped by 22.8 per cent last month, while exports of industrial goods rose by 8.4 per cent.
Rice exports dropped 34.9 per cent in value last month to $3.23 billion, while volume shrank 43.3 per cent to 4.7 million tonnes.
The export value of rubber slumped 41.1 per cent to $6.68 billion, while frozen-food exports fell 7.6 per cent, shrimp shipments by 27.2 per cent, chicken sales by 11.3 per cent, and exports of frozen and preserved fruit and vegetables by 10.9 per cent.
Exports of electronic goods fell 14.5 per cent and electrical appliances by 6.1 per cent, but shipments of automobile and parts increased 9.5 per cent.
Shipments to most markets dropped last month compared with the same period last year. Exports to the European Union fell by 12.9 per cent and those to the United States by 1 per cent.
Exports to Japan dropped 3.1 per cent, while shipments to Asean saw an 11.7-per-cent fall, sales to China plunged by 14.7 per cent and those to South Korea slipped by 6.8 per cent.
The fall in imports last month was due to lower demand for raw and semi-processed goods, which declined by 36.3 per cent year on year.
However, imports of capital goods rose by 25.9 per cent, and fuel imports increased 21.1 per cent.