Asia's biggest and most powerful country may see a leadership change in 2012 that will of course affect not only the region but also the world. In October or November of this year the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will almost certainly nominate Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping as the new CPC general secretary. China's current Vice Premier Li Keqiang will take over as premier from Wen Jiabao. Xi's coronation as president will probably not occur until early 2013, but upon assuming the role as CPC general secretary, Xi will be China's de facto head of state. Barring some dramatic shakeup, within a year or so the People's Republic of China will officially have a new “Xi-Li” administration, with the two becoming the fifth generation of China's leaders under the Communist Party. The Xi-Li government will likely rule until 2022, when the sixth generation of leaders will take over.
China's rulers are no longer charismatic dictators or even able strongmen; they are more like managers juggling a very large corporation. This is not to say that China's leaders are not dictatorial; China is still in many ways a police state. But for the most part, the running of China continues on a set trajectory. Of course, monkey wrenches are constantly being thrown into the works and at any time China has the potential to spiral out of control. It will be up to Xi and Li to try to keep it all together.
Perhaps the greatest challenge the two new leaders will face is growing income disparity leading to frustration in the areas just beyond the gleaming coastal cities. Hundreds of millions of Chinese are not fully reaping the benefits of China's hybrid of a communist political system coupled with a free-for-all economic system that is — for all intents and purposes — capitalist. Demonstrations and even riots occur around China on a frequent basis, with mobs sometimes attacking police stations or other symbols of power. Many around the world do not realise the depth of dissatisfaction felt by many average Chinese as China does a good job of keeping the lid on both local and international press coverage.
Should the global economic situation continue deteriorating, China's position as a manufacturing base will likely cause it to begin suffering even more. A protest situation that sparks a martyr or two could easily lead to a larger wave of anger that could end in significant violence. Horrific pollution and the destruction of entire ecosystems throughout China is another major issue the new leadership will have to address, not only because of the potential for man-made disasters but also because many Chinese are beginning to take a more active stance against the devastation of their local regions.
As the new Chinese leadership gets ready to assume the helm they will also have to figure out how to deal with the baby-faced new ruler of North Korea. Anyone hoping to see short-term substantial change in that Stalinist totalitarian state will likely be disappointed, but over the next five years there could be genuine changes if Kim Jong Un is able to consolidate power and decides to begin moving his nation towards a Chinese-style market economy. There is also the possibility the young Kim will go the opposite direction and provoke conflict in the region as a way of demonstrating he is “man” enough to rule. Should North Korea completely collapse during the administration of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, the Chinese government will also have to decide whether or not to intervene.
Few expect the new Chinese leadership to be major reformers or democracy activists. China will likely continue on its current path. But according to the former Singaporean PM Lee Kuan Yew, the new Chinese leader is “impressive” and possesses “emotional stability.” Hopefully Lee's character assessment turns out to be correct.
