Presiding over his first disaster management briefing, Philippine President Benigno Aquino III Wednesday took to task the weather bureau for its failure to notify the public that Typhoon 'Basyang' (international codename: Conson) would directly hit Metro Manila.
Officials from various agencies reported to Mr. Aquino the extent of the typhoon’s damage and the steps taken to normalise the situation at the emergency meeting of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council in Camp Aguinaldo.
After listening to an update by weather bureau chief Prisco Nilo, Mr. Aquino wondered aloud why the bureau failed to update its bulletin on the typhoon’s track.
The President said that contrary to the last bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on Tuesday that Basyang would make land fall in Aurora, it struck the metropolis, toppling power lines and trees.
Significant error
“We rely on you to tell us where the problem is or where the potential problem areas are ... this is unacceptable,” said Mr. Aquino, who closely monitored the development of the typhoon even as he hosted a dinner with the media on Tuesday (July 13) night.
“May we know why the significant error happened and what directions can be done later on?” he asked Pagasa officials.
Nilo explained that the bureau’s model allowed it to only issue bulletins every six hours. He also said that while the bureau only predicted it would cross Bulacan and Central Luzon, it raised Signal No. 2 in the metropolis.
Mr. Aquino pointed out that many things could happen in six hours and reminded the Pagasa officials that they should have plugged this gap a long time ago.
“I hope this is the last time that we are all brought to areas different from where we should be,” he said, telling the officials to list down the equipment that they needed and that the government could provide.
Ondoy, Frank
Pagasa came under fire in September last year for failing to alert Metro Manila residents of the severity of Storm 'Ondoy' (Ketsana) which submerged a large swath of Metro Manila in more than a month’s worth of rain in just 12 hours.
The weather bureau was also blamed for the sinking of the MV Princess of the Stars, which sailed directly into the eye of Typhoon 'Frank' (Fengshen) in June 2008. At least 800 passengers were killed in the ship’s sinking.
In its last advisory for Tuesday at 11pm, Pagasa said Basyang had weakened and turned into a tropical storm when it hit northern Quezon, with its eye near Infanta town.
While it placed Metro Manila under Signal No. 2, Pagasa said Basyang, moving west at 22 kilometers per hour, was expected to cross Central Luzon during the rest of the night.
But by Tuesday midnight, Basyang’s winds started to pick up in the nation’s capital, peeling rooftops off homes, snapping trees and electric wires and toppling posts. Wind speed was recorded at 95 kph.
Eye of storm
Nilo said the eye of the storm passed by Metro Manila and nearby provinces like Cavite, Rizal and Bataan.
After the emergency meeting, Mr. Aquino told reporters he merely reminded the weather bureau officials that there was much room for improvement in their weather forecasting.
“It should be fool-proof. What methods can we improve?” he said in an ambush interview after emerging from the Office of Civil Defence.
The bureau should be able to report “significant weather changes at the earliest possible time” and its forecast should be “closer” to reality. Otherwise, prepositioning teams and provisions in areas that are forecast to be hit but are not hit by storms is a waste of time and money, the President said.
“This slows down government response time,” he said.
Lead time of 36 hours
In an interview with reporters following the briefing, Nilo said “the President wants an accurate forecast with a lead time of at least 36 to 48 hours.”
He told reporters that Pagasa’s telecommunication system needed to be automated for easy and swift transfer of data from field stations to the forecasting centre in Quezon City.
Internet connections have been a perennial problem faced by weather forecasters. “We need a reliable communication system that cannot be disrupted despite bad weather conditions,” he added.
Nilo said automating data transmission would require some P1.8 billion.
Not just equipment
Mike Padua, a Naga City-based amateur meteorologist who has his own storm tracking site (www.typhoon2000.ph) and who correctly predicted Basyang would head for Metro Manila, said the problem with PAGASA’s forecast went beyond the procurement of new equipment.
“You will need more training to go with the new equipment. But more than how to use the new equipment, training in the new methods of meteorology and storm tracking,” Padua told the Inquirer.
Padua recommended training under experts from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
He also said Pagasa should use resources on the Internet for information on coming storms. “There are many websites officially recognized by many agencies,” he said.
Padua has combined a love of meteorology and intense study to become a viable source of information on storms in the country and has helped the Naga City government deal with storms.
Brain drain
Pagasa also has to contend with a brain drain. In 2007, the agency lost two experienced weather forecasters to another weather agency in Dubai.
This year, Pagasa Deputy Administrator Nathaniel 'Ka Tani' Cruz, who had become the face and voice of the agency on media for the past few years, was reported to have migrated to Australia after getting a lucrative offer from the state weather agency there. With reports from Anselmo S. Roque, Villamor Visaya and Ben Moses Ebreo
